A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
